by Jessica Starace and Liana Lin
The proliferation of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) in the workplace, a type of artificial intelligence (AI) capable of generating new content, has fostered growing concerns about how deployment will impact work and workers. While the effects of GenAI on the workforce remain largely unknown, and speculation about the labor market impacts continues to grow, the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey has explored the landscape of literature about the topic. The prevailing conversations are centered on how GenAI will supplement, augment, complement, or replace what workers are doing and identify what new tasks, roles, and occupations may be created because of GenAI. While GenAI deployment and its impact on work, workers, and the employment landscape will likely be sector-specific, shared insights may explain the technology’s broad effect on the labor market.
When discussing the potential impacts of GenAI on the workforce, researchers often point to previous eras of technological change, such as the introduction of the calculator and the invention of the Internet, to garner insights into the evolution of the workplace, workers’ adaptation to work, and the need for skill transitions. The current research landscape suggests consensus that the deployment of GenAI will “disrupt” U.S. workplaces, workers, and work. Researchers found that 30% of workers might have half of their occupation’s tasks disrupted, while others found that 80% of workers might have one-tenth of their tasks affected. While precise workforce impacts are speculative, research and evidence from past technological transitions suggest that employers will be at the forefront of the GenAI transition. In this way, employers will have to decide if they will upskill or reskill current employees, hire new staff, and/or use gig and temporary workers to fill gaps in expertise and knowledge during this technological transition.
Based on the nature of GenAI and what the technology is capable of, the labor market impacts will likely differ from the impacts of automation. Researchers from various disciplines are attempting to measure and quantify, where possible, the potential impacts of AI and GenAI, with research focusing on “exposure” to AI technology and GenAI capabilities. Occupations in administrative support, business, and legal are considered some of the most “exposed” occupations, with construction/skilled trades, in-person service industries, and transportation less so. Who will be most affected will likely depend on the workers who hold these jobs, where they live, and other factors, making predictions challenging. Research is underway to measure the number of job postings adding GenAI-related skills to jobs and to identify new roles being created. Survey research is being conducted by governmental agencies, nonprofit organizations, and academic institutions to measure what AI and GenAI tools are being used by workers now and by whom, where GenAI is being deployed, views of AI and GenAI in the workplace, and preliminary impacts on workers and customers, including worker productivity and customer satisfaction.
As researchers, employers, and relevant stakeholders conceptualize skill transitions in the era of GenAI, some research suggests that “human” skills (nontechnical) are important to prioritize, while other research indicates “diversifying” skills — technical and nontechnical — will be critical. Most, if not all, workers will need some training in GenAI to work alongside it; fewer workers will need very technical skills to implement and use it. Digital badges, certificates, free online training, and incorporating GenAI into secondary and postsecondary curricula are ways the current and future workforce will learn about GenAI. As such, establishing a culture of continuous learning for new and existing workers will be essential in navigating this period of technological transition. With workers developing the skills to operate in a GenAI-infused work environment, it will be equally important to understand ethical use practices in approaching, deploying, and validating GenAI use cases and outputs. These guiding practices, with the foundational tenets of transparency and explainability, will be essential for ethical and equitable GenAI use.
As deployment continues, it will likely be the responsibility of the government to support workers in times of transition (for example, Unemployment Insurance and personal employment training accounts) and provide reliable labor market information to employers, secondary and postsecondary educational institutions, and workers. Many states, including New Jersey, are at the forefront of navigating this technological transition. They are forming their own task forces to study GenAI impacts and convene decision-makers, researchers, and other stakeholders in conversations about governance, investment, and collaboration opportunities.
To learn more about this topic, read the Heldrich Center’s recent report, Generative Artificial Intelligence’s Impact on New Jersey’s Technology and Life Sciences Sectors: A Literature Review.
Jessica Starace is Survey Research Manager and Liana Lin is Research Project Manager at the Heldrich Center for Workforce Development.