Labor Market

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When asked if the unemployment rate is near the lowest it has been in 50 years, one-third of U.S. workers (36%) say that is true, 28% say that is false, and the remaining 36% are unsure (Figure 1). These numbers are unchanged when the opinions of people who are not working and those who are unemployed and not looking for work are examined.

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Workers’ Sour Assessment of the U.S. Labor Market and Inflation Cuts Across Party Lines on the Eve of National Elections in 2024

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Two in three U.S. workers are very or somewhat concerned about the job market for job seekers as 2024 approaches, according to a national probability-based survey of 1,038 U.S. adults age 18 and older, including 737 people in the labor force. The survey was conducted in mid-November 2023 by the Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey. Read the survey report.

Additionally, over 8 in 10 U.S. workers express anxiety about the cost of living and the possibility of an economic downturn in 2024. Fifty-seven percent of U.S. workers say they are very or somewhat concerned about the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2023, including 21% who are very concerned (see Table 1).

Table 1: Percent Very or Somewhat Concerned/Very Concerned About Economic Indicators, Labor Force Sample, November 2023

(According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate was 3.4% and 3.5% from September 1968 to August 1969, and 3.5% in November and December 1969. It was also 3.5% in September 2019, and January and February 2020. Since February 2022, it has fluctuated between 3.4% and 3.9%, reaching 3.4% in April 2023 and 3.5% in July 2023.)

Figure 1: Percent True/False/Unsure About Unemployment Rate, Labor Force Sample, November 2023

“Despite an unemployment rate that hovered just below 4% for nearly two years, most U.S. workers don’t know that unemployment rates are near the lowest levels since the 1960s and express concerns about the labor market,” according to Dr. Carl Van Horn, Distinguished Professor of Public Policy and Director at the Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University. “This lack of awareness about the labor market was also reflected in our survey in an August 2018 Work Trends study. At that time, half of U.S. adults believed the unemployment rate was at least 7% or were not sure, even though the reported rate was at or below 4.0% for several months.” Even U.S. workers (44%) who say the unemployment rate is near the lowest it has been in 50 years are very or somewhat concerned about the unemployment rate (see Table 2).

Table 2: Percent True/False/Unsure About Unemployment Rate by Unemployment Rate Concern, Labor Force Sample, November 2023

Notably, there are only minor differences in the opinions of those who identify as Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.Sixty-nine percent of Democrats, 68% of Republicans, and 65% of Independents are very or somewhat concerned about the job market (see Figure 2).

Figure 2: Percent Concerned About the Job Market for Those Looking for Work, Labor Force Sample by Political Party, November 2023

While 62% of Independent workers, 61% of Republican workers, and 49% of Democratic workers say they are concerned about the unemployment rate, most either do not think the measure is near the lowest it has been in 50 years or are unsure. (See Table 3.)

Table 3: Percent True/False/Unsure About Unemployment Rate by Party Identification, Labor Force Sample, November 2023

The nation’s lowest-income workers express the greatest concern about the economy and the labor market, similar to findings from a May 2023 Work Trends study of U.S. adults. Workers living in higher-income households are more likely to say the unemployment rate is at its lowest in 50 years. Twice as many U.S. workers (73%) living in households earning less than $50,000 per year are very or somewhat concerned about the unemployment rate, compared to the nation’s higher earners ($100,000 and above) at 36% and their job security (53% vs. 27%). Tables with household income breakdowns split three ways (less than $50,000, $50,000 to less than $100,000, and $100,000 and above) are presented in the topline.

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Announcement about findings from a November 2023 survey of American workers and job seekers.

Workers’ Sour Assessment of the U.S. Labor Market and Inflation Cuts Across Party Lines on the Eve of National Elections in 2024

heldrich_robb — Fri, 08 Dec 2023 13:58:09 +0000

Workers’ Sour Assessment of the U.S. Labor Market and Inflation Cuts Across Party Lines on the Eve of National Elections in 2024

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heldrich_robb Fri, 12/08/2023 - 13:58

Published Date

December 8, 2023

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Work_Trends_December_2023.pdf (3.26 MB)

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Examines results from a November 2023 survey of American workers and job seekers on topics like employment, the unemployment rate, job security, the job market, finances, the impact of technology and artifical intelligence on jobs, the cost of living, and the possibility of a recession or economic downturn.

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Findings from November 2023 survey of American workers and job seekers.

The Labor Market, Then and Now: The First Two Decades of the 21st Century - Big Labor Market Trends

heldrich_robb — Wed, 27 Sep 2023 12:47:33 +0000

The Labor Market, Then and Now: The First Two Decades of the 21st Century - Big Labor Market Trends

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September 27, 2023

heldrich_robb Wed, 09/27/2023 - 12:47

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The Labor Market, Then and Now: The First Two Decades of the 21st Century - Big Labor Market Trends

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The U.S. labor market has experienced significant changes during the past two decades. Profound changes were driven by technology, business strategies, public policy, and shifting social norms. Two enormous economic shocks — the Great Recession of 2007–2009 and the pandemic recession of 2020 — also altered the economy and labor market. Collectively, these major developments transformed the nature of work and opportunities for American workers. For those with advanced education and technological skills, these labor market developments brought enhanced opportunity and increased ability to weather economic disruptions. For those with less formal education and skills training, their ability to obtain stable, family-sustaining jobs became even more challenging.

The Center for Workforce and Economic Opportunity at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has released the first article in a three-part series of articles that analyze labor market, workforce, occupational, and educational trends since 2000. These articles provide a concise graphic depiction — through tables and charts — of how American workers are experiencing the rapidly changing labor market.

Among the noteworthy findings from the article:

Inflation-adjusted median earnings increased 15%, from $45,095 to $52,000, in the period from 2000 to 2020. However, median earnings gaps closed for only two groups since 2000 — the gap between Asian and Pacific Islander female workers and all workers, and the gap between Asian and Pacific Islander males and white male workers. Black, Hispanic, and Native American workers suffered an outsized brunt of economic shocks and experienced longer roads to economic recovery.
Wages increased for all workers from 2000 to 2022.
Labor force participation for all workers aged 18 and older declined by 4.8% since the beginning of the century — 68.4% to 63.6% from 2000 to 2022.
The nation’s unemployment rate rebounded faster after the pandemic than its recovery from the Great Recession. The Great Recession caused unemployment to spike to between 9% and 10% by 2009 and 2010 and did not return to its average level of 5% until 2015. The unemployment rate during the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic peaked at 14.4% in April 2020 for all full-time workers aged 18 and older. Most workers were only on temporary layoff and employers recalled them as pandemic lockdown orders lifted, sparking a swift rebound just a year later.
Today, a larger percentage of Americans in the labor force have a higher education degree than at any other time in U.S. history. The proportion of workers with at least a Bachelor’s degree increased from 27% in 2000 to 40% by 2020. Two decades ago, 45% of workers had no college credits. Today, that number has dropped to 34%.

The article’s co-authors are Dr. Carl Van Horn of the Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University, Nyerere Hodge of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and Stuart Andreason of the Burning Glass Institute.

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The first article in a three-part series of articles that analyze labor market, workforce, occupational, and educational trends since 2000

New Brief Released - Whipsawed, Precarious, and Pessimistic: Americans’ Changing Views About the Economy and Labor Market During a Decade of Fundamental Change

heldrich_robb — Wed, 03 May 2023 12:16:19 +0000

New Brief Released - Whipsawed, Precarious, and Pessimistic: Americans’ Changing Views About the Economy and Labor Market During a Decade of Fundamental Change

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May 3, 2023

heldrich_robb Wed, 05/03/2023 - 12:16

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Whipsawed, Precarious, and Pessimistic: Americans’ Changing Views About the Economy and Labor Market During a Decade of Fundamental Change

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Despite significant improvements in the labor market since the Great Recession and the depths of the pandemic, and with historically low levels of unemployment, Americans’ attitudes about the economy have soured, according to Work Trends surveys conducted over more than a decade by the Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University.

A new brief from the Heldrich Center examines Americans’ opinions about the labor market and an array of economic indicators, including the cost of living, which remains Americans’ greatest concern.

The brief also explores Americans' opinions by income and age, with America’s lowest earners most concerned about the job market, the unemployment rate, and the ability to financially support their households. The latest Work Trends survey was conducted April 7 to 10, 2023 of a national probability sample of 1,026 U.S. adults age 18 and older.

The brief was written by Carl Van Horn, Ph.D., Distinguished Professor of Public Policy at Rutgers University and Director of the Heldrich Center, and Jessica Starace, MPP, Research Associate.

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A new brief from the Heldrich Center examines Americans’ opinions about the labor market and economy.

Whipsawed, Precarious, and Pessimistic: Americans’ Changing Views About the Economy and Labor Market During a Decade of Fundamental Change

heldrich_robb — Tue, 02 May 2023 11:27:04 +0000

Whipsawed, Precarious, and Pessimistic: Americans’ Changing Views About the Economy and Labor Market During a Decade of Fundamental Change

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American economy

U.S. Economy

heldrich_robb Tue, 05/02/2023 - 11:27

Published Date

May 3, 2023

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Whipsawed_Precarious_and_Pessimistic.pdf (3.78 MB)

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Analysis about Americans' attitudes about the economy and labor market.

Trends in American Opinions about Jobs, 2010 to 2021

heldrich_robb — Thu, 13 Jan 2022 18:31:46 +0000

Trends in American Opinions about Jobs, 2010 to 2021

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January 13, 2022

heldrich_robb Thu, 01/13/2022 - 18:31

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Trends in American Opinions about Jobs, 2010 to 2021

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As the world enters the third year of a worldwide pandemic, Heldrich Center researchers are tracking how Americans, and the labor force specifically, are thinking about work and the economy, and how these opinions have changed in the past decade. As part of the Heldrich Center's award-winning survey series, Work Trends, a new research brief titled Trends in American Opinions about Jobs, 2010 to 2021 includes selected trend data about work, the job market, and job security. The brief compares findings from the fourth quarter of 2021 with key years during times of economic strife and growth, including August 2010 immediately following the depths of the Great Recession, January 2013 during the economic recovery, August 2018 as the economy expanded, and December 2020 in the week leading up to the administration of the first COVID-19 vaccine in the United States on December 14, 2020.

As 2022 begins, American workers express the greatest level of confidence in finding new jobs if they need to since 2010, and a majority of the public now say it is a "good time" to find a quality job, a flip-flop from the fourth quarter of 2020 and 2013 as the nation recovered from the Great Recession. While optimism about the job market and job security is now high, and comparable to 2018, there are important differences in these opinions by age and household income that explain why some Americans still say they are very or somewhat concerned about the unemployment rate, the job market for those looking for work, and job security for current workers.

“Two years into the pandemic economy, American workers express great confidence in their ability to find new jobs. This explains why so many are asking their employers for higher wages and better benefits and why others just quit their jobs in search of better opportunities,” said co-author Carl Van Horn, the Heldrich Center’s founding Director who has led the center’s polling for over 20 years.

“While poll numbers in 2021 and 2018 are comparable, the devil is in the details,” Jessica Starace, co-author of the brief and Research Associate at the Heldrich Center said. “Asking Americans to describe their attitudes about various aspects of employment and unemployment, and disaggregating those opinions by key socioeconomic demographics, paints a clearer picture of economic attitudes as they pertain to jobs, and why Americans are split, even before the Omicron variant spread, or in times of economic expansion.”

The Heldrich Center's award-winning survey series, Work Trends, has collected public opinion data on work, the workforce, education, and the economy since 1998. The survey findings inform employers, union leaders, policymakers, community members, the media, and academic communities about critical workforce and educational issues that relate to the emerging global economy. For more information and detailed reports, please visit here.

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New research brief uses selected trend data during times of economic strife and growth to examine Americans' opinions about work, the job market, and job security.

Trends in American Opinions about Jobs, 2010 to 2021

heldrich_robb — Thu, 13 Jan 2022 18:22:06 +0000

Trends in American Opinions about Jobs, 2010 to 2021

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heldrich_robb Thu, 01/13/2022 - 18:22

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Dynamics of Engineering Labor Markets: Petroleum Engineering and Responsive Supply

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Work_Trends_Brief_January_2022.pdf (6.72 MB)

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Includes selected trend data about work, the job market, and job security. Compares findings from the fourth quarter of 2021 with key years during times of economic strife and growth, including immediately following the depths of the Great Recession, during the economic recovery, as the economy expanded, and in the week leading up to the administration of the first COVID-19 vaccine in the United States.

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Examines selected trend data about work, the job market, and job security.

Dynamics of Engineering Labor Markets: Petroleum Engineering and Responsive Supply

admin — Mon, 26 Oct 2020 23:17:00 +0000

Dynamics of Engineering Labor Markets: Petroleum Engineering and Responsive Supply

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admin Mon, 10/26/2020 - 23:17

Published Date

January 1, 2011

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Hal Salzman, Ph.D

Status

Completed

Funded By

Alfred P. Sloan Foundation

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Hal Salzma

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In 2011, the Heldrich Center examined the increase in demand for petroleum engineers and the response by students leading to a dramatic increase in numbers of graduates. Specifically, the research examined the following issues: (1) program dynamics of colleges in expanding size and number of programs; (2) both demand (by industry) and supply (by colleges) of engineers for the petroleum industry; and (3) the surge in industry demand, the mix of engineering fields employed, changes in content, and the response in supply (colleges, retraining, influx from other fields, immigration, etc.).

Product:

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Study of the increase in demand for petroleum engineers and the response by college students.

Unfulfilled Expectations: Recent College Graduates Struggle in a Troubled Economy

admin — Thu, 22 Oct 2020 15:15:29 +0000

Unfulfilled Expectations: Recent College Graduates Struggle in a Troubled Economy

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admin Thu, 10/22/2020 - 15:15

Published Date

May 18, 2011

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